INDIANAPOLIS – We’re not to the point it’s worth flipping to one of Jim Mora’s classic post-game rants.
You know the one.
Playoffs? Playoffs?!?! You kiddin’ me?
But it’s worth having a serious discussion regarding the Indianapolis Colts’ status as a contender for one of the AFC’s seven playoff spots on the heels of their 24-6 loss to Detroit. They’re 5-7 after losing for the fourth time in five games and while they still have a playoff pulse, it’s growing fainter.
This might be the latest reality check for Michael Pittman Jr.
One of the team’s offensive cornerstones experienced the postseason rush as a rookie in 2020, but that remains the extent of his exposure. The Colts haven’t been back since earning the third wild-card spot under the leadership of Philip Rivers.
“I thought it was going to be an every-year thing,’’ Pittman said with a smile Monday afternoon. “I was like, ‘Oh yeah, this wasn’t that bad. We’re going to come back next year and the year after that.'’’
Nope.
Since following Rivers to an 11-5 record and pushing the Buffalo Bills to the limit in the first round before falling 27-24 in Orchard Park, N.Y., the Colts are 27-35-1. They completely wasted late-season playoff pushes in 2021 and last year.
“Quickly I was humbled because it’s not like that,’’ Pittman said of playoff consistency. “The older I get, I start to realize the importance of every little thing to get to the playoffs because it’s so difficult in this league and there’s so many teams every single year that are good teams that just don’t make it. If we could close out strong and finish and get to the playoffs, that would be huge. You never know what happens from there.’’
“These last five games will be big,’’ Shane Steichen said, stating the obvious.
Any talk of the Colts regrouping and salvaging an erratic season by reaching the playoffs needs to be done with a realistic tenor.
The odds are not favorable, and further compounded by a few deficiencies that are crippling Steichen’s offense.
On the latter, consider the Colts have failed to score an offensive touchdown twice in the past four games. Prior to this season, they had been held without an offensive TD just 11 times since 2000.
According to ESPN’s playoff tracker, the Colts have a 23% chance of reaching the postseason. The Athletic isn’t as optimistic, listing Indy at 20%.
The chase for the 7th and final AFC spot likely includes No. 7 Denver (7-5), No. 8 Miami (5-6), No. 9 Indy and No. 10 Cincinnati (4-7). ESPN lists the Broncos’ odds at 63%, the Dolphins at 20% and the Bengals at 13%.
The final five games are receptive to a strong finish if the Colts hold up their end. New England (3-9), Denver (7-5), Tennessee (3-8), New York Giants (2-9) and Jacksonville (2-9) are a combined 17-40.
When it comes to the Colts, any legitimate playoff hopes hinge on beating the Broncos in Denver on Dec. 15 along with finding a way to overcome substandard performances by the offensive line and the tight ends.
A quick look:
*Offensive line: Injuries have decimated the position, accelerated the exposure of the rookie class and resulted in a marked regression.
And that became worse Monday morning when rookie center Tanor Bortolini reported to the complex and informed the medical staff he was experiencing concussion symptoms from Sunday’s loss to Detroit.
That likely means Danny Pinter replaces Bortolini, who had replaced veteran Ryan Kelly. Kelly remains on the injured reserve list following knee surgery and isn’t eligible to return until the Denver game.
Pinter was a 2020 fifth-round draft who started seven games in his first three seasons, including four at center when Kelly was out. However, he has yet to take an offensive snap this season – 35 on special teams – and missed the 2023 season with a broken ankle.
His last offensive snap: in the final game of ’22, a 32-31 loss to Houston.
It’s possible Bernhard Raimann returns for Sunday’s road test against the New England Patriots. The veteran left tackle has missed the last two games with a knee injury.
If not, the o-line figures include rookie Matt Goncalves at left tackle, Quenton Nelson at left guard, Pinter at center, undrafted rookie Dalton Tucker at right guard and Braden Smith at right tackle.
It’s possible the Colts replace Tucker, who stepped in when Will Fries suffered a broken leg in week 5 but has struggled as the season has unfolded. Pro Football Focus ranks Tucker No. 69 among qualifying guards. Fries is listed No. 4 and was in the midst of a Pro Bowl-caliber season before the injury.
No phase of the offense reflects the offensive line struggles more than the run game.
The Colts are averaging 94 yards per game and 4.3 yards per attempt over the last four games. That per-carry figure has been boosted by quarterback Anthony Richardson’s involvement: 93 yards on 20 carries the past two games, including a career-high 61 yards on 10 attempts against the Lions.
Jonathan Taylor has been largely a nonfactor the past two: 92 yards on 35 attempts (2.6). He has averaged 3.7 yards or less in three of his last four starts.
“It starts with me,’’ Steichen said. “Schematically, we’ve got to look at some things on what we’re doing to get that thing going because he is a very talented player that can create the home runs for us.’’
Taylor’s long run covered 14 yards against the New York Jets and 10 against Detroit.
After the game, Richardson noted the Lions “have a great front . . . but I feel like as an offense, we didn’t do much to get JT going. Blocking up front could have been a little bit better. Me, making some better reads for JT right there. Then, just blocking outside as well. Just trying to work as an offense, get that guy going, but we’ve just got to all improve in that aspect.’’
Pass protection also has been an issue even though the Colts allowed zero sacks against the Lions. Richardson has avoided maybe five or six sacks in the past two games with his strength and mobility.
According to Next Gen Stats, Richardson was pressured on 46.7% of his 30 dropbacks by the Lions. That’s the highest rate in the league this season.
*Tight ends: Without question, this has been the most disappointing position group. And that was driven home when Drew Ogletree dropped what would have been an 11-yard touchdown from Richardson in the second quarter. Instead of taking a 10-7 lead, the Colts trailed 7-6 following Matt Gay’s 29-yard field goal.
Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson, Ogletree and Will Mallory have combined for 26 receptions, 299 yards and two TDs. Alie-Cox leads the way with nine catches, 117 yards and one TD.
As has been widely mentioned, the Colts’ 2018 tight end room combined for 108 catches, 1,216 yards and 21 receiving TDs.
The current group is on pace for roughly 37 receptions.
The last time tight ends combined for fewer than 50: 1997 (40).
The only personnel switch would be to give Mallory more snaps. The 2023 fifth-round pick has been on the field for just 67 snaps in eight games and been a healthy scratch four times. He has three catches for 22 yards after 18 for 207 as a rookie.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.