INDIANAPOLIS – While the Indianapolis Colts have remained in the playoff conversation for a few weeks now, talk of a division title appeared far-fetched.
Oh, how things can change in a few weeks.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost three in a row, easing what appeared to be an iron grip on the AFC South after a key win against the Houston Texans in Week 12. The Colts, Jags and Texans are all 8-6.
To be clear, Jacksonville still holds critical tiebreakers over the Colts and Texans—even in the event of a three-way tie. Effectively, either Indianapolis or Houston would need to finish a game better in the standings than Jacksonville to claim the division crown.
But the fact that the AFC South even enters the conversation is staggering, giving what appeared to be a solid lead by Jacksonville in the standings. One more stumble by the Jaguars, combined with a three-game winning streak by the Colts or Texans (it can’t be both—they play each other in Week 18), and Jacksonville would lose its first-round playoff home game.
The goal remains the same for the Colts, however: just win. Indy’s remaining schedule includes a game at Atlanta (6-8) and wraps up with a pair of home tilts against Las Vegas (6-8) and Houston (8-6). Winning all three would likely be enough to secure at least a Wild Card berth.
Currently, the New York Times’ playoff predictor gives the Colts a 53% chance of making the postseason. A win against Atlanta would boost that to 66%; a loss would drop them to 38%. Those numbers, of course, don’t factor in other results from Week 16.
The same playoff predictor gives the Texans a 55% chance of making the postseason; Jacksonville’s loss on Sunday Night Football dropped its playoff chances to 75%.
Colts' remaining schedule
- Week 16: at Falcons (6-8)
- Week 17: vs. Las Vegas (6-8)
- Week 18: vs. Texans (8-6)
Texans’ remaining schedule
- Week 16: vs. Browns (9-5)
- Week 17: vs. Titans (5-9, eliminated from playoffs)
- Week 18: at Colts (8-6)
Jaguars’ remaining schedule
- Week 16: at Buccaneers (7-7)
- Week 17: vs. Panthers (2-12, eliminated from playoffs)
- Week 18: at Titans (5-9, eliminated from playoffs)