INDIANAPOLIS – Zaire Franklin speaks his mind. Sometimes he lets his fingers do the talking.
Wednesday, the Indianapolis Colts’ veteran linebacker used his X account (formerly Twitter) to sarcastically respond to the latest personnel move within the AFC South.
“I see we lost the offseason Super Bowl again . . . better luck next year,’’ Franklin posted.
Yuk, yuk, yuk.
His comments came on the heels of the Houston Texans acquiring four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade with the Buffalo Bills. It was the latest significant offseason splash by the AFC South’s reigning champions. You remember the Colts coming up short against the Texans in week 18, right?
Since that win-or-else meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium, everyone has taken steps to improve their roster. The next step is the April 25-27 NFL draft.
It’s not a stretch to assert the 2024 season will serve as a referendum on the best way to address roster-building.
Is it being ultra-active in the market, either via free-agent signings or a trade?
The Texans and Tennessee Titans, and to a lesser degree Jacksonville, have added outside help. It’s going to take a bit of time for each team’s fan base to get acquainted with the new faces: Diggs, Danielle Hunter and Joe Mixon in Houston; Calvin Ridley, L’Jarius Sneed and Tony Pollard in Nashville; Gabe Davis, Devin Duvernay, Mac Jones and Mitch Morse in Jacksonville.
Or is it by retaining and rewarding your own? That’s the path taken by Colts General Manager Chris Ballard. He made a strong run at Hunter, Minnesota’s edge rusher, and offered more potential money than Houston. But Hunter opted for the Texans, who ponied up $48 million in guarantees over two years.
There also was some level of interest in Sneed, but the Kansas City Chiefs cornerback eventually was traded to the Titans, who signed him to a four-year, $76 million contract.
When a massive splash failed to materialize, Ballard pivoted to Plan B. That consisted of rollin’ it back.
The Colts gave franchise-tagged wideout Michael Pittman Jr. a three-year, $70 million contract, rewarded linebacker Zaire Franklin with a three-year, $31.25 million extension and re-signed most of their free-agents-to-be. That included cornerback Kenny Moore II (three years, $30 million), defensive tackle Grover Stewart (three years, $39 million), safety Julian Blackmon (one year, a maximum of $7.7 million), defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis (two years, $12 million) and punter Rigoberto Sanchez (three years, $7.75 million).
The only free-agent signings added a pair of backups: quarterback Joe Flacco (one year, maximum of $8.7 million) and defensive tackle Raekwon Davis (two years, $14 million). Ideally, Flacco doesn’t take a meaningful snap in 2024, although 2023 reinforced to Ballard the value of having a proven backup quarterback on the roster.
Just in case.
At last month’s owners’ meetings, Ballard insisted the Colts “looked at free agency in totality . . . we looked at everybody. It kind of worked out where it ended up being a lot of our own guys, which are good guys. It’s always easy to look outside and think automatically that no doubt this guy’s going to be an upgrade. But there’s usually a reason they hit free agency.’’
Shortly after the Colts finished last season 9-8 and came within a few plays of winning their first AFC South title since 2014, Ballard pounded home the fact the Colts “should legitimately be competing for the division and the playoffs. That’s our expectations. That’s really our expectation every year, but I think that is really possible here going forward.’’
The Colts are banking heavily on Anthony Richardson being everything they believe he can be in year 2 after injuries limited him to four starts and 84 pass attempts as a rookie. And they expect 2021 NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor to re-establish himself after rehab from offseason ankle surgery and contract issues limited his availability and effectiveness last season.
“I would be shocked if we’re not about to see real greatness out of (Taylor) here going forward,’’ Ballard said.
That’s placing a ton of weight on Richardson and Taylor.
Oddsmakers anticipate spirited competition for the AFC South title. The over/under win projections for the division, according to BetOnline.ag: Houston 9½, the Colts and Jacksonville 8½ and Tennessee 5½.
The division should be one of the NFL’s most interesting for several years.
All four starting quarterbacks – Richardson, the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, the Titans’ Will Levis, the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence – are on rookie contracts, which provides incredible flexibility in building the roster around that guy.
However, Jacksonville’s window is closing on that front. Lawrence is in the fourth year of his rookie deal and counts $11.71 million against the 2024 cap. His fifth-year option in ’25 jumps to $25.66 million.
Lawrence’s first bite of the free-agent apple figures to be in the $50 million per-year range.
Here’s a capsule look at how the AFC South shapes up. We’ve included each team’s available cap space, according to Overthecap.com (the Colts’ total doesn’t reflect the re-signing of Blackmon).
Colts
*2023: 9-8, third in the division (lost tiebreaker with Jaguars).
*Draft capital: 7 picks, including No. 15 overall.
*Cap space: $16.9 million.
*Notable additions: QB Joe Flacco (free agent/Browns), DT Raekwon Davis FA/Dolphins).
*Notable losses: QB Gardner Minshew II (FA/Raiders)
*Notable re-signings: WR Michael Pittman Jr., DT Grover Stewart, CB Kenny Moore II, LB Zaire Franklin (extension), S Julian Blackmon, P Rigoberto Sanchez, DL Tyquan Lewis.
*Comment: As we mentioned, the Colts are putting a ton on Richardson being that guy in year 2 and Taylor getting back to his 2021 All-Pro form (a franchise-record and NFL-leading 1,811 rushing yards, 2,171 total yards from scrimmage and 20 total TDs). The roster is solid, but lacks difference-making talent. The draft needs to produce a starting cornerback and explosive wideout. And we wouldn’t need the entire 10 minutes to turn in the card if tight end Brock Bowers still was available at 15.
Texans
*2023: 10-7, division champions.
*Draft capital: 9 picks; first pick is 42nd overall (round 2).
*Cap space: $10.8 million.
*Notable additions: DE Danielle Hunter (FA/Vikings), WR Stefon Diggs (trade/Bills), RB Joe Mixon (trade/Bengals) DL Denico Autry (FA/Titans), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (FA/Titans), CB Jeff Okudah (FA/Falcons), DT Foley Fatukasi (FA/Jaguars).
*Notable losses: DE Jonathan Greenard (FA/Vikings), LB Blake Cashman (FA/Vikings), RB Devin Singletary (FA/NY Giants).
*Notable re-signings: TE Dalton Schultz, PK Ka’imi Fairbairn.
*Comment: The Texans were in position to build on last season’s strong finish and AFC South title, and that’s before GM Nick Caserio and head coach DeMeco Ryans decided to take an aggressive approach to the offseason. They featured the NFL’s Offensive (Stroud) and Defensive (Will Anderson) Rookies of the Year, and boasted a solid supporting cast.
Then, the Texans got busy and undeniably got much better.
This nugget is stunning. The Texans are the first team in NFL history to add a player with at least 100 receptions (Diggs with 107), 1,000 rushing yards (Mixon with 1,034) and 10 sacks (Hunter with 16.5) in the same offseason.
Jaguars
*2023: 9-8, second in division.
*Draft capital: 8 picks, including No. 17 overall.
*Cap space: $18.2 million.
*Notable additions: WR Gabe Davis (FA/Bills), WR/KR Devin Duvernay (FA/Ravens), QB Mac Jones (trade/Patriots), C Mitch Morse (FA/Bills), DE Arik Armstead (FA/49ers), CB Ronald Darby (FA/Ravens), S Darnell Savage (FA/Packers), PK Joey Slye (FA/Commanders).
*Notable losses: WR Calvin Ridley (FA/Titans), S Rayshawn Jenkins (FA/Seahawks), DT Foley Fatukasi (FA/Texans), CB Darious Williams (FA/Rams).
*Notable re-signings: G Ezra Cleveland, LB Foye Oluokun.
*Comment: We’re still wondering what in the heck happened? The Jaguars were in control of the AFC South last season, until they weren’t. They started 8-3, including 4-1 inside the division, and were in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but closed the season by losing five of their last six. The Jaguars’ death spiral ended with a 28-20 loss to the Titans in Nashville in week 18.
Injuries to Lawrence were a major factor, but the defense allowed an average of 29.2 points in the five losses.
“I don’t know if I’ll ever get over it,’’ coach Doug Pederson said at the owners’ meetings. “I think for me it’s going to be my motivation, my fuel moving forward and I’m not going to let it cloud the vision, but at the same time it’s going to be close in my mind as I move forward with the team this spring.
“I guess now we’re going back to the hunter (in the division) again, right?’’
Right.
Davis, who’s been a nice complementary wideout with the Bills, must step up in weight class and help fill the void created by Ridley’s departure.
Titans
*2023: 6-11, fourth in division.
*Draft capital: 8 picks, including No. 7 overall.
*Cap space: $30.8 million.
*Notable additions: WR Calvin Ridley (FA/Jaguars), CB L’Jarius Sneed (trade/Chiefs), RB Tony Pollard (FA/Cowboys), C Lloyd Cushenberry (FA/Broncos), LB Kenneth Murray (FA/Chargers), DE Sebastian Joseph-Day (49ers), CB Chidobe Awuzie (FA/Bengals), QB Mason Rudolph (FA/Steelers),
*Notable losses: RB Derrick Henry (FA/Ravens), QB Ryan Tannehill (FA/unsigned), DE Denico Autry (FA/Texans), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (FA/Texans), CB Kristian Fulton (FA/Chargers).
*Notable re-signings: PK Nick Folk,WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
*Comment: The Titans hit the reboot button in Nashville when they selected Will Levis with the second pick in round 2 of the 2023 draft. Thanks, but see ya, Ryan Tannehill.
That was followed by General Manager Ran Carthon firing coach Mike Vrabel in early January, replacing him a few weeks later with Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and releasing the face of the franchise – Derrick Henry – in mid-March. The Colts will not miss facing Henry twice a season.
We’ll see how this transition period unfolds. As is the case with Richardson in Indy, Levis must be the quarterback of the future in Nashville. He was hot and cold as a rookie: eight TDs, four interceptions and a 58.4% completion rate in nine starts. The Titans were 3-6 with Levis under center.
To his credit, Carthon has aggressively restocked the roster with Sneed, Ridley, Pollard and a few others.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.