INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium.
*Kickoff: 1 p.m.
*Broadcast: CBS4.
*Spread: Colts by 4.
*History lesson, Part I: The Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts trail the overall series with the Oakland/Los Angles/Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 10-11. In one of those scheduling quirks, the AFC South Colts and AFC West Raiders are meeting for a sixth consecutive season.
The Colts have won two of the last three, but the loss was a big one: 23-20 at Lucas Oil Stadium in week 17 of 2021. With a win, Indy would have locked up a wild-card playoff spot. Instead, the Colts were pushed into a win-and-in trip to 2-14 Jacksonville, which, well, you know probably remember the gory details.
*History lesson, Part II: Let’s get one thing straight. Everything is team, team, team at this point of the season. But let’s not discount a few individual milestones that loom.
Michael Pittman Jr. needs one reception to join Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark as the only Colts with at least 100 in a season. He also needs 23 yards to eclipse his career best of 1,082 posted in 2021.
Linebacker Zaire Franklin needs six tackles to break the team record of 166 that he established last season. His 161 tackles lead the league.
*Playoff picture: We’ll defer to DeForest Buckner when it comes to setting the stage for Sunday.
“Yeah, everybody knows the importance of this game,’’ the veteran defensive tackle said. “It will determine the outcome of our season, our playoff contention. Right now, we can control everything we want. We’ve got to go out there and handle business.
“It’s a playoff game. It’s win or go home.’’
Got it?
Even after last week’s costly and hard-to-fathom loss to the Falcons, so much is right there for the 8-7 Colts. They’re tied with Jacksonville and Houston for the AFC South lead and enter week 17 with the third and final AFC wild-card spot. They have a 48% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. That goes to 66% with a win over the Raiders but drops to 23% with a loss.
Finish the season with wins over the Raiders and Texans, who are in town week 18, and the Colts’ odds of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2020: 98%. With two wins and a Jacksonville loss – Sunday against Carolina without Trevor Lawrence or in week 18 at Tennessee – and the Colts win the AFC South for the first time since 2014. That means a first-round home playoff game.
In remembrance of the late Al Davis: Just win, baby.
*Backup plan: This is getting redundant. Gus Bradley’s defense faces a backup quarterback for a fifth straight week. From Will Levis to Jake Browning to Mitch Trubisky to Taylor Heinicke to Aiden O’Connell. It’s hardly encouraging the Colts are just 2-2 in the previous meetings and needed overtime in Nashville to avoid 1-3.
Everyone should be familiar with O’Connell. Fourth-round pick in the April draft after piling up 9,219 yards and 65 TDs for Purdue. He was named the Raiders’ starting QB in week 9 by interim coach Antonio Pierce and the rookie has led them to a 4-3 record in the last seven games.
O’Connell hasn’t set the league on fire, but generally has done enough. He’s completed roughly 61.5% of his passes with eight TDs and seven interceptions and averaged just 200 yards in his eight starts. He’s been a hit-and-miss prospect. O’Connell passed for 248 yards and four TDs in the Raiders’ 63-21 blowout of the Chargers but just 62 yards in last week’s 20-14 upset of the Chiefs in Kansas City. In the latter, he failed to complete a pass in the final three quarters and missed on his final 11 attempts.
The Raiders benefitted from two defensive TDs for a second consecutive week.
The objective is the same whenever facing a rookie QB: get in his face early and stay there. Speed up his internal clock. Make him make throws before he’s ready. The Colts have set an Indy-era record with 47 sacks. They need to pad that mark.
*Backup plan, Part II: That starts with containing a Raiders’ run game that ranks No. 31 in yards per game (88.6) and No. 29 in yards per attempt (3.7). Josh Jacobs likely will miss a second straight game with a quad injury. Second-year back Zamir White picked up the slack at K.C. with 145 yards on 22 carries. He had 123 rushing yards in the first 14 games.
While the pass rush must agitate O’Connell, the Colts’ run defense has to get its act together. It has allowed at least 125 yards in seven of the last nine games, including 177 yards to the Falcons last week. Missed tackles were a serious issue in Atlanta.
*Pitt’s importance: Pittman is expected to be available after the Colts’ no-doubt go-to receiver cleared concussion protocol for a second straight week. He suffered a relapse prior the Falcons game, but all signs indicate he’s good to go versus the Raiders.
The abysmal offensive performance in Atlanta reinforced Pittman’s value to the franchise: 262 total yards, just 201 gross passing yards. Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and D.J. Montgomery fell well short of filling the enormous void.
Pittman is a game-changer with the Colts (99 catches, 1,062 yards, four TDs). He provides Gardner Minshew II with a security blanket who’s capable of moving the chains and piling up 90-100 yards and 9-10 catches.
*JT’s importance: Are the Colts’ going to benefit from Jonathan Taylor at some point? Time’s running out. His out-and-in/out-and-back-in season has impacted his effectiveness. Taylor is averaging a career-low 3.9 yards per attempt and hasn’t cracked the 100-yard level in 12 straight games, easily the longest drought of his career.
His last 100-yard outing: 147 yards on 22 carries in last season’s 23-20 win over the Raiders in Vegas.
With Zack Moss out with the forearm injury, Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter must determine how to divvy up the carries between Taylor and Trey Sermon. We’re in favor of giving Taylor as many as he can handle.
The Raiders’ run defense is somewhat vulnerable, ranking No. 22 in yards per game (122.2). But it’s worth noting it has been much stouter over the last five games, allowing averages of 89.4 yards per game and 3.3 per attempt.
*Protection importance: He’s No. 98 and he’s in that Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Trey Hendrickson discussion. If the Colts aren’t able to adequately handle Maxx Crosby, he’ll absolutely wreck the game.
“One of the best players in the league,’’ Steichen said. “Obviously, we’ve got to have a plan for him.’’
Crosby has 13.5 sacks, 26 quarterback hits and 20 tackles for loss. He’s relentless as a pass rusher and against the run.
Crosby usually lines up on the left side of the defense, which means he’ll go against veteran Braden Smith, who likely will return after missing three games with a knee injury, or rookie Blake Freeland, who’s struggled since replacing Smith.
Minshew has been capable of running the offense when Pittman’s on the field and his protection holds up. But he was sacked a season-high six times and completed a season-low 54.1% of his attempts in Atlanta.
Protect Minshew, or else.
*And the winner is: Colts 20, Raiders 13. We’re not sold on Aiden O’Connell being able to do enough because we anticipate Zaire Franklin and the defense getting rebounding following that awful performance in Atlanta. Minshew will lean on Pittman and Taylor, Matt Gay will knock down a couple of field goals and the Colts will strengthen their playoff push.
It won’t be easy, but that doesn’t matter.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.