INDIANAPOLIS – The Indianapolis Colts can play their way into the postseason with a win against the Houston Texans Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Depending on how things shake out, they could host a home playoff game or hit the road as the No. 6 or No. 7 team in the Wild Card round.
What happens if the Colts win?
If the Colts beat Houston, they’re in the playoffs. There’s no question about that—no scenario in which they would miss the postseason with a win.
That wasn’t the case a week ago, when certain game results could’ve kept Indianapolis out of the playoffs even if they won out. A loss by the Cincinnati Bengals to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17 eliminated that possibility.
Had the Colts and Bengals been the last two teams standing in the AFC with the same record, Cincy would’ve been in because of their Week 14 win against the Colts. But again, that’s no longer a possibility.
The Bengals have been officially eliminated from postseason play.
What happens if the Colts lose?
Simply put, the Colts are done for the season. There are no scenarios in which Indianapolis can make the playoffs if they lose to the Texans. Conversely, there’s no scenario in which the Texans can lose and extend their season.
What happens if the Colts tie?
This is a remote possibility, but funky playoff scenarios are part of the fun of the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures.
Should the Colts-Texans game end in a tie (if you’ll recall, the two teams tied to open the cursed 2022 season), both teams could make the playoffs.
This mind-bending scenario requires losses by the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, at Ravens on Saturday) and Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7, at Titans on Sunday).
By NFL tiebreaking standards, a tie is better than a loss (and a win, obviously, better than a tie), meaning Indianapolis and Houston would finish the season 9-7-1, giving them better records than Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, who would both finish 9-8.
Because of Indy’s head-to-head win over the Texans in Week 2, Indianapolis would win the AFC South and Houston would be the Wild Card.
This scenario isn’t possible if the Steelers AND Jaguars win, but a tie would get Indianapolis into the playoffs if either of those teams were to lose. Again, the Week 2 win vs. Houston is the key.
In this tie scenario, if the Jaguars lost and Steelers won, Indianapolis would win the AFC South. If the Jaguars won and the Steelers lost, Indianapolis would be a Wild Card. Houston would be eliminated either way.
Whew! It’s unlikely, but kind of fun to talk about.
Which seeds could the Colts have?
The Colts could finish as high as the No. 4 seed (this requires a loss by Jacksonville) or as low as No. 7.
There’s also a possibility they could be the No. 6 seed.
Here's a look at possible playoff opponents.
No. 4 seed: vs. Browns
To get the No. 4 seed and host a playoff game at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts must win, and the Jaguars must lose (or tie) against the Titans.
Jacksonville owns the tiebreaker over the Colts via a season sweep of their divisional head-to-head games, so if both teams end up with the same record, the Jaguars take the AFC South.
If the Colts are the No. 4 seed, they’ll host the Cleveland Browns.
Indy lost a high-scoring game to the Browns back in Week 7, with Cleveland winning 39-38.
No. 6 seed: at Kansas City
To get into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, the Colts must win. Under this scenario, Jacksonville would beat the Titans and Miami would beat Buffalo.
Indianapolis and Buffalo would both end the season at 10-7, but the Colts would win the tiebreaker (conference record) and claim the sixth seed, leaving Buffalo at No. 7. If the Steelers won their game, they would be in at No. 7 instead of Buffalo. The Colts hold the head-to-head tiebreaker vs. Pittsburgh via their Week 15 victory.
In this scenario, Indianapolis would travel to Kansas City to play the No. 3 Chiefs.
No. 7 seed: Buffalo (probably)
Becoming the No. 7 seed starts with a Colts win. After that, the Jaguars would need to beat the Titans to win the AFC South. If the Bills won Sunday night’s game at Miami, Buffalo would win the AFC East (and the No. 2 seed), and Indianapolis would head to Buffalo.
The last time the Colts made the playoffs (2020, with Philip Rivers at quarterback), they played the Bills in the first round and lost 27-24.
If Miami-Buffalo ends in a tie, the Colts would head to South Beach.
Miami has already clinched a playoff spot and will play in the Wild Card round regardless of a win or loss. A victory, however, would ensure that the Dolphins won the division and hosted a first-round game.
The Colts take on Houston at 8:15 p.m. on Saturday, with the game airing on ESPN/ABC. If they win, they won’t know their opponent until Sunday night’s game ends, as the Bills and Dolphins play in the final game of the regular season.