INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Saturday night showdown with the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium.
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m.
- Broadcast: ESPN.
- Spread: Texans by 1½.
History lesson, Part I:
The Colts lead the overall series 33-10-1, including 17-4 in Indy. They padded the hefty advantage by winning nine straight and 15 of the first 16 after the Texans joined the NFL as an expansion team in 2002, and are 10-3-1 since 2017. The most recent stretch includes a 31-20 win in Houston in week 2.
History lesson, Part II:
The Colts’ Indy era involves 641 regular-season games. Since you asked, they’re 334-306-1 since the relocation in 1984.
The lone tie: 20-all in the 2022 season opener in Houston.
Playoff picture:
We once again look to the late Al Davis. Just win, baby.
For the fourth time in the last six seasons, the Colts head into the final weekend of the regular season with absolutely everything on the line. Complete a 13thseasonal sweep of the Texans and they’re guaranteed a wild-card berth. Lose, and an against-all-odds season ends. With a win and a Jacksonville loss Sunday in Nashville to the Tennessee Titans, the Colts win their first AFC South title since 2014.
Of course, those same scenarios are true for Houston.
Slow the rookie QB:
C.J. Stroud has made a strong push for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s been poised and efficient. The No. 2 overall pick in the draft ranks No. 6 in passer rating (99.0), No. 3 in yards per attempt (8.1) and No. 9 in yards (3,844) despite missing two games with a concussion. He has 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He’ll be the first rookie to lead the league in yards per game (274.6), was the first rookie to pass for at least 300 yards in four consecutive games and his five 300-yard games are tied with Justin Herbert and Andrew Luck for the most by a rookie in league history.
The Colts won their week 2 meeting with Texans, but only after Stroud passed for 384 yards and two TDs. They made him work for the fat numbers by sacking him six times and hitting him another three times. Stroud fumbled twice, losing one.
Indy cannot allow Stroud to get comfortable in the pocket. It set a franchise record with 49 sacks and must get after the rookie from the outset. Stroud has too many options in the pass game to allow him to sit in the pocket and go through his reads: wideout Nico Collins (71 catches, 1,102 yards, seven TDs, 21 catches of at least 20 yards), tight end Dalton Schultz (54, 593, five), Robert Woods (40, 426, one). Devin Singletary leads a competent run game (835 yards, three TDs).
Stroud has 62 completions that have gained at least 20 yards, tied-3rd-most in the league.
“He’s not afraid, obviously, to make those big throws,’’ defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. “He’s always looking down field to make a big play. He extends plays really well using his feet.’’
Heads up, defense:
The onus rests with Gus Bradley’s defense to deal with Stroud on two fronts. Pressure him. And hold up on the back end. The latter has been a season-long adventure.
As a result of suspensions and injuries, the secondary Bradley turned to in last week’s win over the Las Vegas Raiders consisted of rookie outside corners JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones, nickel corner Chris Lammons in place of injured Kenny Moore II and safeties Nick Cross and Ronnie Harrison Jr. Lammons, who has been ruled out for Saturday with an ankle injury, had been on the field for 32 defensive snaps the past four seasons. Harrison’s prior exposure this season had been at linebacker.
The importance of Moore’s expected return can’t be overstated. He needs to be the leader on the field. Even so, Brents and Jones must hold up and limit Houston’s explosive plays.
The Colts have allowed 50 receptions of at least 20 yards and a 64.6 completion rate along with averages of 7.2 yards per attempt and 11.1 yards per reception.
It will be asking too much on the secondary if Buckner, Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo and Tyquan Lewis are unable to apply pressure on Stroud.
Prime-time Minshew?:
The national focus heading into the game has been on Stroud. And rightly so. But the Colts need another steady game from their starting QB. Gardner Minshew II must put together one of those efficient games where he makes the handful of necessary plays and avoids the crippling turnovers.
The Colts have put themselves in this position by going 6-2 over the final eight games. Minshew has held up his end during that stretch. He’s averaged 220.5 yards per game with eight TDs and four interceptions, and had 16 completions of at least 20 yards.
In his first extended playing time this season in week 2, Minshew replaced a concussed Anthony Richardson in the second quarter and shredded Houston’s defense: 19-of-23, 171 yards, one TD. The Texans hadn’t prepared for him then. They have now.
Houston also brings a threatening pass rush to Indy, although it will be without top sacker Jonathan Greenard (12.5), who’s out with an ankle injury. The Texans must rally around Will Anderson Jr., the No. 3 overall pick in the draft who has 7 sacks, 22 quarterback hits and 10 tackles for loss, and the tackle tandem of Sheldon Rankins (6 sacks) and Maliek Collins (5).
Even with Greenard out last week, the Texans posted 6 sacks in their win over Tennessee.
Time for JT to step up:
We’ve worn out this storyline and will do so one more week. The Colts desperately need Jonathan Taylor to assert himself. They need him to resemble the player that led the NFL in rushing in 2021 with a franchise-record 1,811 yards.
Heading into week 18, Taylor has dealt with inactivity and injuries. He’s averaging a career-low 4.0 yards per carry with a season-best 96 yards last week against the Raiders. He’s failed to rush for 100 yards in 13 straight games, the longest drought of his career.
One game could dramatically alter his 2023 perception.
Here’s where we point out Taylor has been a constant thorn in the side of the Texans’ defense. He missed the week 2 meeting while dealing with his ankle rehab/contract extension. But in five meetings with Houston, Taylor has averaged 124.6 yards per game and 5.9 per attempt with six TDs. His last three games: 161, 143, 145.
Shane Steichen won’t make this a one-back attack. Zack Moss is expected to return after missing the past two games with a forearm injury. Moss was the run-game catalyst in week 2, rushing for 88 yards as the Texans yielded a season-high 126 yards on the ground.
Houston, by the way, brings a stingy run defense to Indy. It ranks tied-No. 3 in yards per game allowed (88.5) and No. 2 in yards per attempt (3.3). They’ve been much better than that over the four games: 63 yards per game, 2.4 per attempt.
And the winner is... Colts 27, Texans 24.
This is one of those where we followed the heart, not the head. We’ve always believed you lean toward the better quarterback, and rookie C.J. Stroud presents a stronger threat than Gardner Minshew II. But the Colts are on the verge of finishing a truly special season. And they’re at home. They’ll find a way. One more time.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.